(Leesburg, VA) – GuestMetrics LLC sent around its latest data on restaurant and bar sales early this week. More below…

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2013 ends on a weak note… so given the on-premise initiatives announced by many of the alcohol companies, key will be to see if there’s any type of rebound in early ‘14

· Our data indicates trends for full service restaurants and bars closed out the year on a particularly weak note. While overall traffic to full service restaurants and bars was -1.9% for the full year 2013 vs. 2012, the picture towards the end of the year was even weaker: traffic to on-premise was -3.3% during 4Q13, and looking specifically at the final 4 weeks of the year, was down nearly 6% vs. year ago levels, likely impacted by unfavorable weather and a shorter holiday shopping cycle leading to fewer gift shopping trips and the dining out meals that often accompany them.

· Traffic to bars/clubs was -3.8% during the full year 2013 compared to 2012, and looking specifically at the periods at the end of the year, was down 5.9% during 4Q and 6.6% during the final four weeks of the year, likely symptomatic of young adult consumers in the United States remaining under significant economic pressure. Traffic to casual dining was down 2.2% for the full year 2013 compared to 2012, was down 3.6% during 4Q, and looking specifically at the final 4 weeks of the year, was down 6.8%. Traffic to fine dining restaurants held up quite a bit better than in the other two channels, with traffic up 0.2% for the full year 2013 compared to 2012, but was down 1.4% during 4Q and 2.2% during the final 4 weeks.

· Consistent with the weak traffic trends, volume trends for the alcohol categories were also quite weak in on-premise during 2013. Beer volumes were down 4.0% for the full year 2013 compared to 2012, with volumes down 5.2% during 4Q, and 7.3% for the final 4 weeks of the year. Spirits volumes were slightly better, but still weak, down about 2.5% for the full year 2013 compared to 2012, and also experienced a weak end of the year with volumes down 3.8% in 4Q and 5.8% during the final 4 weeks. Lastly, wine, which had started off the year on a strong note but then softened throughout the year, had volumes down about 1% for the full year 2013, and also closed out the year on a weak note, with volumes down 2% in 4Q and around 4% for the final four weeks of the year.

· While it is certainly discouraging to see such weak trends in on-premise for 2013, particularly towards the end of the year, key will be to see whether some of the weakness seen at year-end was due to unusual factors (i.e.,. the more compressed shopping season and unfavorable weather), and whether there might be a rebound in traffic and alcohol volume trends to kick off 2014, which is particularly important given the focus on on-premise announced by many of the alcohol suppliers over the past few months.