On-premise beer sales declines finish at 4.8% YOY for Q3 in GuestMetrics’ latest data

guest metrics llc logoPress Release:

(Leesburg, VA) – According to GuestMetrics, restaurant/bar trends during the 4 weeks ending 10/06/13 showed further deterioration, resulting in 3Q13 being the weakest quarter so far this year for on-premise.

· Our data indicates that across the board during the 4-week period ending October 6th, trends for full service restaurants and bars continued to be very weak. Overall traffic to full service restaurants and bars started out the year at -1.4% in 1Q13, improved slightly to -0.8% in 2Q13, but then deteriorated to -1.7% for 3Q13, with traffic for the most recent 4-week period even softer at -2.5%.

· All three segments within on-premise have been generally very weak. Traffic to bars and clubs was -3.5% in 1Q13, improved slightly to -1.5% during 2Q13, but deteriorated fairly sharply to -4.2% for 3Q13, with traffic down a concerning -6.0% during the most recent 4 weeks. Traffic to fine dining started out the year at +2.4%, softened to +1.4% during 2Q13, and ended 3Q13 at +0.2%, with traffic even slower at -0.9% during the most recent 4-week period. Casual dining traffic started out the year at -2.2%, improved to -1.4% during 2Q13, and was at -2.0% in 3Q13, with traffic at –2.5% during the most recent 4 weeks.

· These trends are certainly discouraging, and likely a sign of the broad consumer base that continues to be very careful with their discretionary dollars particularly in light of the significant uncertainty coming out of Washington. Additionally, given the particularly weak trends during the last 4 weeks, which includes most of the first week of October, 4Q13 is likely already off to a soft start unfortunately.

· On-premise alcohol volumes were -2.8% during 1Q13, recovered somewhat to -1.4% in 2Q13, but then decelerated to -3.8% in 3Q13, with alcohol volumes down 4.1% during the most recent 4 weeks. In terms of the specific alcohol categories, beer volumes were -4.3% in 1Q13, improved to -2.0% in 2Q13, but then deteriorated relatively sharply to -4.8% in 3Q13, with volumes at -5.2% during the most recent 4-weeks, likely hurt by the particularly weak traffic trends we’re seeing to bars and clubs. Spirits volumes were -2.4% in 1Q13, saw a slight improvement to -1.4% in 2Q13, and weakened to -3.1% in 3Q13, with volumes at -3.5% during the most recent 4-week period. And lastly, wine volumes started off the year on a positive note at +0.8% in 1Q13, improved very slightly to +1.0% during 2Q13, and have now dipped into negative y/y territory at -1.1%, with volumes at -2.0% in the most recent 4 weeks.

· Our early analysis of trends by region suggests that some of the particular weakness seen in on-premise during the past few weeks is likely due to the uncertainty relating to the government shutdown, so our hope is that with the recent resolution, some of the traffic and volume trends in on-premise will finally start to turn a corner in the coming weeks.

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